数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.     

扬州市稻田高效种养模式应用现状及发展对策

近年来,扬州市根据国家农业供给侧结构性调整要求,充分利用自然资源禀赋,开展了多种形式稻田种养模式的示范与推广。本文阐述了扬州市稻鸭共作、稻虾共作以及稻田改作荷藕-虾共作等高效种养模式的应用现状,以单纯种稻为对照,比较了各种模式的生产效益;分析了稻田高效种养模式示范推广过程中存在的主要问题,并提出了促进稻田高效种养模式可持续发展的若干对策。     

Quantitative trait loci responsible for the difference in γ-oryzanol content in brown rice between japonica-type and indica-type rice cultivars

γ-Oryzanol is a main oleophilic component in rice bran oil and has been well recognized as a good dietary supplement for human health, as well as having uses in industrial materials. japonica-type rice cultivars generally showed significantly higher contents of total γ-oryzanol in brown rice compared with indica-type cultivars, although within-group variation was significant. The objective of this study was to explore quantitative trait loci (QTLs) responsible for the difference in the γ-oryzanol content between japonica-type and indica-type rice cultivars, using recombinant inbred lines (RILs), backcross inbred lines (BILs), and corresponding chromosome segment substitution lines (CSSLs) derived from crosses between japonica-type and indica-type. Results from RILs and BILs showed that eight QTLs were detected with R² from .09 to .16. Nine candidate regions for QTL were also suggested from corresponding CSSLs. These QTLs from RILs and BILs and the candidate regions from CSSLs were not overlapped, although one QTLs was mapped near the boundaries of the respective candidate region. At four QTLs and three candidate regions, alleles or segments from japonica-type caused higher contents than those from indica-type. On the other hand, at the other four QTLs and six candidate regions, alleles or segments from indica-type caused higher contents than those from japonica-type, which is a reverse result to the parental differences. This result strongly suggested that alleles with increasing effects on γ-oryzanol content could be accumulated not only from japonica-type but also from indica-type, leading to a potential for increase in γ-oryzanol content in future breeding programs.     

王正非林火蔓延模型改进研究

王正非林火蔓延模型是目前国内比较先进的森林火灾蔓延模型,但是由于林火行为的复杂性,此模型在准确率和普适性方面仍存在许多不足。本文结合已有的成果进一步改进王正非模型,增加了可燃物湿度对林火蔓延速度的影响,改进了林火初始速度的计算方式。针对各种坡度对林火蔓延行为的影响给出了一个计算公式。与改进前相比,改进后的模型使其对林火蔓延情况的预估更为精准。     

Bulk pollen pollination in maize for efficient construction of introgression populations with high genome coverage

Introgression populations consist of a set of introgression lines or families, constructed by continuous backcrossing to the recurrent parent, while carrying a limited number of chromosome segments from a donor parent in their genomes. Increasing the genome coverage is an important aim when constructing introgression population. In this study, we proposed bulk pollen pollination (BPP) method and used it to increase the genome coverage of a maize introgression population. The results showed that the genome coverage of the introgression population constructed using BPP method reached 100% at BC₃ generation, which accorded with the simulation result. The BPP‐based BC₃F_1:2 population could identify most quantitative trait loci (QTL) detected using the F_2:3 population, especially major QTL. Simulation analysis showed that the genome coverage of introgression population increased with the increase of population size and the number of bulked plants, and decreased with the increase of backcross generation. Our results proved the reliability of the BPP‐based introgression population in increasing genome coverage and detecting QTL, and provided references for constructing high‐coverage introgression populations.     

耕作方式及秸秆还田对土壤性质、微生物碳源代谢及小麦产量的影响

以小麦品种济麦22为试验材料,采用裂区试验设计,耕作方式为主区,分别设常规翻耕(C)、深松(S)、旋耕(R)处理,副区为秸秆还田量,分别设秸秆全还田(P)和秸秆不还田(A)处理,采用Biolog Eco技术测定土壤微生物碳源代谢功能,并分析土壤基本理化性质和作物产量。结果显示:深松与秸秆还田均有利于土壤含水量和有机碳含量的提高,0～15 cm土层分别提高了9.78%和24.00%,15～30 cm土层分别提高了7.08%和15.81%;深松提高了15～30 cm土层的pH值6.67%,秸秆还田提高了0～15 cm土层的pH值4.32%。深松和秸秆还田均有利于代谢多样性(丰富度指数、香浓多样性指数)、碳源代谢强度的提高,0～15 cm土层分别提高了26.84%、3.84%和38.02%,15～30 cm土层分别提高了11.87%、 3.63%和14.74%。主成分分析表明常规翻耕秸秆不还田和旋耕耕作秸秆不还田碳源代谢功能相近,15～30 cm层次内常规翻耕秸秆全还田碳源代谢功能和深松耕作秸秆全还田处理相近。深松和秸秆还田平均提高了小麦产量5.82%,微生物碳源代谢功能与小麦产量具有极显著的相关性。     

全国水土保持功能年度价值评价研究

依据《中华人民共和国水土保持法释义》对水土保持功能的定义,分析了水土保持设施、地貌植被所发挥或蕴藏的有利于保护水土资源、防灾减灾、改善生态、促进社会进步等作用的内涵。在借鉴国内外先进经验和研究成果基础上,结合我国水土流失特点、水土保持现状,界定出水土保持功能价值概念。采用生态经济学计量方法,结合实际调研情况,分析各个指标之间的逻辑关系,建立了水土保持功能价值评价模型。按照国家水土保持区划一级分区,适当考虑二级分区和三级分区,以及全国水土流失动态监测站网分布概况,收集39个典型县(市、区)2016年度的土壤、水文、气象等观测资料,测算出其水土保持功能价值,进而推算至全类型区,再从8个水土保持一级分区的水土保持功能价值推算出2016年度全国水土保持功能价值,并在对测算结果进行分析讨论的基础上,对国家制定水土保持生态文明对策提出了建议。     

中国林产工业产业关联与波及效应分析——基于投入产出模型的国际比较

文中基于中国、美国、俄罗斯、印度、巴西、印度尼西亚6国2000—2014年投入产出数据，通过测算中间需求率、中间投入率、感应度系数和影响力系数，对林产工业产业关联与波及效应进行动态比较分析。研究结果表明:相较于其他国家，中国木材加工业、造纸业的中间产品型产业特征明显，对国民经济贡献程度较高，但同时也面临成为“瓶颈产业”的风险；中国家具制造业的最终需求型产业性质显著，受整体经济发展的拉动作用明显弱于其他国家。总体而言，中国林产工业对国民经济的推动作用整体上高于国民经济发展对其的拉动作用。需要重点提升木材加工业、家具制造业整体产业链竞争力，加大科研创新投入力度以提升产出效率，并进一步提高家具制造业整体产品的附加值。     

规模化畜牧养殖对生态环境的破坏及防治

近年,畜牧养殖业蓬勃发展,过去的区域化散养已经基本不存在,养殖结构逐渐向集约化、一体化、规模化过渡,养殖规模也逐渐增大。养殖副产品肉、蛋、奶等极大满足了人们的生产生活,养殖中产生的尿液、粪污对生态环境造成极大影响。为促进规模化养殖实现绿色健康发展,该文分析规模化畜牧养殖对生态环境的破坏及防治措施。